Inflation measures how quickly the prices of goods and services rise over time — eroding the purchasing power of money. The UK's primary inflation measure is the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), published monthly by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Understanding UK inflation history helps explain mortgage rate decisions, wage negotiations, pension increases, and the overall health of the British economy.

This article provides the complete annual UK CPI data from 1990 to 2025, contextualises every major inflation event, and explains how inflation affects your shopping, rent, savings, and mortgage.

Key UK Inflation Statistics at a Glance

11.1%
Peak CPI — October 2022
2%
Bank of England target
2.5%
CPI December 2024
3.5%
35-year average CPI (est.)

Annual UK CPI Inflation Rate: 1990 to 2025

The table below shows the average annual UK CPI rate for each year. CPI data before 1997 is reconstructed by the ONS using the historical CPI methodology. Source: ONS Consumer Price Inflation.

Note: CPI (Consumer Prices Index) was formally adopted as the UK's main inflation measure in 2003. Earlier figures are ONS back-calculated estimates. RPI (Retail Prices Index) was the main measure before 2003 and is typically 0.5-1.5pp higher than CPI.

Year CPI Annual Rate (%) Context
19909.5%Post-1980s boom, high interest rates
19915.9%Recession begins, rates cut
19923.7%Black Wednesday — pound exits ERM
19931.6%Recovery, low inflation
19942.4%Steady growth
19952.6%Stable economic conditions
19962.5%Near target levels
19971.8%Bank of England gains independence
19981.6%Low inflation era begins
19991.3%Asia financial crisis dampens prices
20000.8%Dot-com boom, low commodity prices
20011.2%9/11 impact, economic slowdown
20021.3%Euro notes/coins launched in Europe
20031.4%CPI formally adopted as main measure
20041.3%Housing boom continues
20052.1%Oil price rises
20062.3%Stable growth
20072.3%Sub-prime crisis emerges in US
20083.6%Global financial crisis; oil spikes to $147/barrel
20092.2%Recession; QE introduced by Bank of England
20103.3%VAT rise to 20%; energy price rises
20114.5%Commodity prices surge; VAT effect
20122.8%Eurozone crisis; austerity
20132.6%Slow recovery
20141.5%Oil price collapse begins
20150.0%Near-deflation; oil price -50%
20160.7%Brexit vote; pound falls
20172.7%Post-Brexit import price rises
20182.5%Wage growth improving
20191.8%Brexit uncertainty dampens demand
20200.9%Covid-19 pandemic; demand collapse
20212.6%Post-lockdown demand surge; supply shortages
20229.1%Energy crisis; Ukraine war; CPI peaked at 11.1% in October
20237.3%Persistent food and services inflation
20242.5%Disinflation; base rate held then cut
2025 (forecast)~2.5-3.0%Services inflation sticky; energy cap effect

Source: ONS Consumer Price Inflation time series (CZWT, L55O). Annual averages. 2025 figure is OBR/Bank of England forecast as of February 2026.

Key Inflation Events in UK History

1990-1992
End of the Lawson Boom and Recession
The late 1980s boom under Chancellor Lawson saw loose monetary policy, a housing bubble, and credit expansion. By 1990, CPI reached 9.5%. The subsequent recession and Black Wednesday (September 1992), when the pound was forced out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, caused significant currency depreciation and eventually forced a rethink of UK monetary policy. Interest rates briefly hit 15% to defend the pound before the ERM exit.
1997
Bank of England Independence — The Great Moderation Begins
Gordon Brown's first act as Chancellor was to grant the Bank of England operational independence to set interest rates. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was established with a formal 2% CPI inflation target. This institutional change anchored inflation expectations and contributed to nearly two decades of relatively low and stable inflation — the period economists call the "Great Moderation".
2008-2009
Global Financial Crisis
The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 triggered the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. UK CPI spiked to 3.6% in 2008 partly because oil hit $147 per barrel, before demand collapsed as the recession hit. The Bank of England cut rates to 0.5% and launched Quantitative Easing (QE) — buying gilts to inject money into the economy. Inflation fell but never dropped to the deflation seen in some countries.
2010-2012
VAT Rise and Commodity Surge
The coalition government raised VAT from 17.5% to 20% in January 2011. Combined with rising global commodity prices and energy costs, this pushed CPI to 4.5% in 2011 — more than double the Bank of England's target. The MPC kept rates on hold, arguing the inflation was "supply-side" and temporary, a decision that proved broadly correct as inflation fell back by 2013-14.
2015-2016
Near-Deflation and Brexit
Oil prices halved between 2014 and 2016, pushing UK CPI to 0.0% in 2015 — the lowest since records began. The Brexit referendum vote in June 2016 caused the pound to fall 10-15%, making imports more expensive and pushing inflation back above the 2% target through 2017-18 as businesses passed on higher costs.
2020
Covid-19 Pandemic
The Covid-19 lockdowns caused the sharpest economic contraction since records began. Demand collapsed, keeping inflation low at 0.9% for 2020. The government's Furlough Scheme (supporting 9 million jobs), ultra-low interest rates (0.1%), and additional QE prevented a deflationary spiral. However, this enormous monetary and fiscal stimulus, combined with global supply chain disruption, sowed the seeds for the 2021-22 inflation surge.
2021-2023
The Great Inflation — Peak 11.1%
UK CPI rose from 2.6% in 2021 to a 40-year high of 11.1% in October 2022 — the highest since 1981. The surge was caused by four simultaneous shocks: (1) post-pandemic demand rebound, (2) global supply chain bottlenecks, (3) Russia's invasion of Ukraine causing energy prices to soar (UK household energy bills rose from around £1,000/year to over £2,500/year), and (4) a weak pound making imports more expensive. The Bank of England raised the base rate from 0.1% (December 2021) to 5.25% (August 2023) in the fastest tightening cycle in decades. Food CPI peaked at 19.2% in March 2023.
2024-2025
Disinflation — Returning Toward Target
By late 2024, headline CPI fell to 2.5% as energy prices normalised, global supply chains healed, and higher interest rates dampened demand. The Bank of England began cutting rates in August 2024, the first reduction since 2020. Services inflation remained sticky at around 5%, reflecting tight labour markets and strong wage growth. The OBR and Bank of England forecast CPI to hover between 2.5% and 3% through much of 2025 before settling near the 2% target.

The Bank of England's 2% Inflation Target

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets eight times per year to set the base interest rate. Its primary mandate is to maintain CPI inflation at 2% — set by the UK government and measured by the ONS.

How the 2% Target Works: If CPI moves more than 1 percentage point away from 2% — above 3% or below 1% — the MPC Governor must write an open letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer explaining why, how long the deviation will last, and what action is being taken. Between 2021 and 2023, Governor Andrew Bailey wrote multiple such letters as inflation soared above 10%.

The MPC's primary tool is the base interest rate. Raising rates makes borrowing more expensive, reducing consumer and business spending, which slows price rises. Cutting rates stimulates spending and economic activity, supporting demand. The Bank also uses Quantitative Easing (buying government bonds) to inject money into the economy in times of crisis.

How Inflation Affects Everyday Life in Britain

Grocery Shopping

Food inflation peaked at 19.2% in March 2023. A typical £100 weekly shop in 2021 cost approximately £119 by 2023. Budget supermarkets (Aldi, Lidl) saw record market share gains as households switched to save money.

Rent and Housing

Private rents rose 9% year-on-year in 2023 (ONS data), faster than wages in many regions. Landlords passed on higher mortgage costs after base rate rises, squeezing renters in a market with low supply.

Mortgages

The base rate rise from 0.1% to 5.25% caused average 2-year fixed mortgage rates to jump from below 2% to over 6% by late 2023. A £200,000 repayment mortgage saw monthly payments rise by £500-£700 for those remortgaging.

Savings and Pensions

Higher base rates finally rewarded savers: NS&I Premium Bonds, easy-access and fixed savings rates all rose to levels not seen since 2008. State pension increases under the Triple Lock were 10.1% in April 2023, protecting pensioners from inflation erosion.

Energy Bills

The Ofgem energy price cap rose from £1,042/year (October 2021) to £3,549/year (October 2022) before the Energy Price Guarantee capped bills at £2,500 until April 2023. Household energy costs were the single largest driver of the 2022 inflation surge.

Wages vs Inflation

Real wages (wage growth minus inflation) fell sharply in 2022-23. By October 2022, workers saw a real pay cut of around 3% even as nominal wages grew 6%. Real wage growth returned to positive territory in late 2023 as inflation fell faster than wage growth slowed.

Real vs Nominal Wages: The Purchasing Power Story

Inflation makes it essential to distinguish between nominal wages (what you are paid in cash) and real wages (what you can actually buy). A 5% pay rise when inflation is 10% is a 5% real pay cut.

PeriodNominal Wage GrowthCPI InflationReal Wage Change
2021+5.8%+2.6%+3.2% (real rise)
2022+6.0%+9.1%-3.1% (real cut)
2023+7.8%+7.3%+0.5% (near flat)
2024+5.5%+2.5%+3.0% (real rise)

By 2024, UK workers experienced meaningful real wage growth for the first time since 2021, as nominal wage growth significantly exceeded CPI inflation. However, the cumulative loss in purchasing power from 2022-23 meant that average real wages in early 2024 were still below their 2021 peak.

How Inflation Is Measured: CPI vs RPI

The ONS publishes several inflation measures. The two most important for UK residents are:

MeasureWhat It IncludesUsed ForTypically Higher?
CPIBroad basket of goods; excludes mortgage costs, council taxBank of England target, benefit uprating, state pension Triple LockNo (lower)
CPIHCPI plus owner-occupiers' housing costs (OOH)ONS headline preferred measure since 2017Slightly higher
RPIIncludes mortgage interest payments, council taxIndex-linked gilts, some train fare increases, legacy pension schemesYes (0.5-1.5pp higher)

Calculate the Effect of Inflation on Your Money

Use our free UK inflation calculator to see how much purchasing power you have lost or gained.

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UK Inflation Outlook for 2025

As of early 2026, the outlook for UK inflation in 2025 suggests:

  • Headline CPI is expected to average 2.5-3.0% for 2025 before gradually returning toward the 2% target
  • Services inflation remains elevated at around 5%, driven by strong wage growth feeding into labour-intensive sectors like hospitality, healthcare, and education
  • Energy prices have stabilised after the 2022-23 crisis, with the Ofgem price cap falling significantly from its peak. Future energy prices depend on global gas markets and the pace of renewable energy deployment
  • Base rate cuts: The Bank of England is expected to continue cutting rates gradually through 2025, provided inflation behaves as forecast. Markets anticipated rates reaching around 3.5-4% by end-2025
  • Key upside risks: Renewed energy price spikes, geopolitical disruption to trade, stronger-than-expected consumer demand
  • Key downside risks: Weaker-than-expected economic growth, sharp fall in commodity prices, demand weakness from stretched household budgets

For the latest official UK inflation data, visit the ONS at ons.gov.uk or the Bank of England's inflation page at bankofengland.co.uk.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current UK inflation rate in 2025?

UK CPI was 2.5% in December 2024, down from a peak of 11.1% in October 2022. For the most current figure, check the ONS monthly CPI release at ons.gov.uk. The Bank of England's target is 2%.

What was the highest UK inflation rate in modern history?

In the modern CPI era, the highest UK CPI was 11.1% in October 2022, driven by the energy price crisis, post-pandemic demand, supply chain issues, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In the RPI era, UK inflation exceeded 20% in the mid-1970s.

What is the Bank of England's inflation target?

The Bank of England targets 2% CPI inflation. If CPI moves more than 1 percentage point from the target, the Governor must write to the Chancellor explaining why. The Monetary Policy Committee adjusts the base interest rate to steer inflation toward 2%.

What is the difference between CPI and RPI?

CPI excludes mortgage interest payments and council tax, uses geometric averaging. RPI includes housing costs and uses arithmetic averaging, making it typically 0.5-1.5 percentage points higher. CPI is the Bank of England's official target; RPI is used for index-linked gilts and some rail fares.

How does inflation affect my savings in the UK?

Inflation erodes the real value of savings. If your savings account pays 3% but inflation is 4%, you are losing 1% purchasing power annually. During 2022-23 when inflation exceeded 10%, cash savers faced severe real losses unless their accounts paid inflation-matching rates.

How did the 2022 energy crisis cause UK inflation to spike?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 disrupted global gas supplies, causing UK gas and electricity prices to soar. The Ofgem energy price cap rose from around £1,042/year (October 2021) to a peak of £3,549/year (October 2022). Energy costs alone contributed approximately 4 percentage points to the October 2022 CPI peak of 11.1%.

What causes inflation to rise in the UK?

UK inflation rises due to: excess demand (too much money chasing goods), cost-push factors (rising energy, commodity or wage costs), currency depreciation (making imports costlier), or supply disruptions. The 2021-23 surge involved all four simultaneously.

Written by Mustafa Bilgic — Last reviewed: February 2026.
CPI data sourced from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Bank of England policy details from bankofengland.co.uk. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.