Predicted Grade Estimator
Enter your assessment results to estimate what grade your teacher is likely to predict. Add mock exams, tests, and coursework marks and their weightings.
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What Are Predicted Grades?
Predicted grades are a teacher's best estimate of the grade a student will achieve in their final examinations. In the UK education system, they serve several important purposes:
- UCAS university applications — submitted with A-Level predictions for conditional university offers
- Sixth-form and college applications — GCSE predictions inform entry requirements for post-16 courses
- Scholarship applications — many scholarship bodies use predicted grades as eligibility criteria
- Clearing preparation — accurate predictions help students plan for results day scenarios
How Teachers Set Predicted Grades
Subject teachers are responsible for setting predicted grades. They draw on a range of evidence to make their assessment:
Mock Exam Performance
Mock examinations are the most significant factor. Schools typically run at least one full mock exam series, often in December or January of Year 13 (or Year 11 for GCSE). A student's mock grade is usually the starting point for predictions, though teachers adjust up or down based on other factors.
Classwork and In-Class Assessments
Regular class tests, essay marks, problem sets, and in-class assessments give teachers ongoing evidence of a student's ability. A student who consistently achieves 80% on class tests but achieved 65% on a mock due to poor exam technique may receive a prediction higher than the mock grade.
Coursework
Where a subject includes coursework (such as NEA in A-Level subjects), teachers have direct evidence of achievement. Coursework marks — which represent a proportion of the final grade — feed directly into the prediction.
Engagement and Progression
Teachers consider the student's trajectory. A student who started the course achieving grade C/D work but has progressively improved to A/A* work would likely receive a higher prediction than their earliest assessment suggests. Similarly, a student who was achieving A* work but appears to have plateaued or declined will not automatically receive an A* prediction.
Historical Data
Experienced teachers draw on years of data about their students and how mock performance correlates with final exam outcomes. Schools also have access to DfE contextual data about how students with similar prior attainment (Key Stage 4 or GCSE) perform at A-Level nationally.
Predicted Grades and UCAS University Applications
When applying to university through UCAS, predicted A-Level grades are submitted alongside the application. Universities use these grades to decide whether to make a conditional offer — an offer that becomes firm once the student achieves the specified grades in their actual examinations.
UCAS Timeline
- Mid-October (Year 13): UCAS deadline for Oxford, Cambridge, medicine, dentistry, and veterinary science applications
- Late January (Year 13): Main UCAS deadline for other university applications (5 choices)
- March onwards: Universities respond with conditional or unconditional offers
- May: Students firm and insure their choices
- August (Results Day): Conditional offers confirmed or cleared
Conditional Offers
Most university offers are conditional, requiring specific A-Level grades (e.g., "AAB including Biology"). If you meet or exceed these grades on results day, your place is automatically confirmed. If you fall short of your firm choice but meet your insurance choice (typically a lower-grade offer), you go to that university instead.
Contextual Offers
Many universities, particularly Russell Group institutions, now make contextual offers to students from disadvantaged backgrounds, state schools, or certain postcodes. These offers are typically one or two grades lower than standard (e.g., ABB instead of AAA). Eligibility is determined by the university's own criteria, often using DfE data about school performance and free school meal eligibility.
How to Improve Your Predicted Grade
If you want to improve your predicted grade — or challenge one you believe is too low — here is what you can do:
Build Your Evidence Base
Teachers must be able to justify predictions with evidence. The most persuasive evidence is a strong performance in formal assessments, particularly mock examinations. If your mock results are lower than your class performance suggests, speak to your teacher about this.
Request a Meeting
Politely request a one-to-one meeting with your subject teacher. Come prepared with your recent assessment grades, noting any upward trend. Ask specifically what grade they are predicting and what evidence they are using. If you disagree, explain your reasoning calmly and professionally.
Involve Your Tutor or Head of Year
If you cannot resolve a disagreement with the subject teacher, speak to your form tutor, sixth form tutor, or head of year. They can review your overall academic profile and may be able to facilitate a conversation with the teacher.
Gap Year and Deferred Entry
If your predicted grades do not meet the requirements for your chosen courses, consider whether a gap year gives you the opportunity to resit exams and apply with actual grades rather than predictions. Some universities prefer or specifically invite applications with actual results, and this removes the prediction uncertainty entirely.
Why Predictions Are Sometimes Low
Teachers may under-predict because they are cautious by nature, because they want to avoid disappointed students, or because their school has a policy of conservative predictions to avoid complaints when students underperform. Some schools inflate predictions to support university applications, though exam boards and universities are increasingly aware of this practice and contextualise predictions accordingly.
Clearing and Adjustment on Results Day
Results day in August is when your actual A-Level grades are released and UCAS offers are confirmed or cancelled. Several scenarios are possible:
You Meet Your Firm Offer
If you achieve the grades required by your firm choice, your place is automatically confirmed. No further action needed.
You Miss Your Firm Offer but Meet Your Insurance
Your insurance university confirms your place. You can choose to accept this or enter Clearing to find alternative options, but be aware that your insurance place is not held indefinitely once you enter Clearing.
You Miss Both Offers (Clearing)
UCAS Clearing opens on results day and allows you to contact universities with available places. You call the university directly using a Clearing number visible on UCAS Track. Many excellent universities and courses have places available through Clearing, and you may find a better fit than your original choices.
You Exceed Your Offer (Adjustment)
If you significantly exceeded your predictions and your firm offer, UCAS Adjustment allows you to contact higher-ranked universities to see whether they have places. Crucially, you keep your confirmed place while exploring Adjustment options — you cannot be left without a place.