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Lottery Odds & Expected Value Calculator

Jackpot Odds
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per ticket
Your Adjusted Odds
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with syndicate & tickets
Years to Likely Win
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statistically
Expected Value
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per £1 spent
Annual Spend
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on tickets
Prize if Won
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your share

More likely than winning the jackpot:

UK Lottery Odds Explained

The UK National Lottery was launched in November 1994 and has since paid out over £50 billion in prizes to players. Operated by Allwyn (formerly Camelot), the National Lottery funds good causes including arts, sport, heritage, and community projects - receiving approximately 28p from every £1 spent on tickets.

Understanding lottery odds requires a grasp of combinatorics - the mathematics of combinations. For Lotto, you choose 6 numbers from 1-59. The number of possible combinations is calculated as 59!/(6! x 53!) = 45,057,474. This means each ticket has a 1 in 45,057,474 chance of matching all 6 balls for the jackpot.

Complete UK Lottery Odds Table

LotteryTicket PriceJackpot OddsAny Prize OddsAvg Jackpot
National Lottery (Lotto)£2.001 in 45,057,4741 in 9.3£3-8 million
EuroMillions£2.501 in 139,838,1601 in 13£30-200+ million
Set for Life£1.501 in 15,339,3901 in 9.7£10k/month x 30yr
Thunderball£1.001 in 8,060,5981 in 13£500,000
Lotto HotPicks (Pick 5)£1.001 in 834,398Fixed prizes£350,000

National Lottery (Lotto) Prize Tiers

MatchOddsPrize
Match 6 (Jackpot)1 in 45,057,474Jackpot (min £3.8M)
Match 5 + Bonus Ball1 in 7,509,579~£1 million
Match 51 in 144,415~£1,750
Match 4 + Bonus Ball1 in 2,255,493~£140
Match 41 in 2,180~£140
Match 3 + Bonus Ball1 in 9,631£30
Match 31 in 96.2£30
Match 2 + Bonus Ball1 in 761Free Lucky Dip

Perspective: Events More Likely Than Winning the Lotto Jackpot

The odds of winning the National Lottery jackpot are so remote that putting them in context helps understand the true probability:

EventApproximate OddsComparison to Lotto
Being struck by lightning (lifetime, UK)1 in 15,3002,944x more likely
Royal flush on first poker hand1 in 649,74069x more likely
Becoming a professional footballer1 in 900,00050x more likely
Matching 5 Lotto numbers1 in 144,415312x more likely
Winning Thunderball jackpot1 in 8,060,5985.6x more likely
Being born with 11 fingers1 in 50090,000x more likely

Historical Biggest UK Lottery Jackpots

DateLotteryAmountWinner Location
July 2022EuroMillions£184 millionUK (anonymous)
October 2019EuroMillions£170 millionUK (anonymous)
November 2011EuroMillions£161 millionScotland (Weir family)
April 2016National Lottery£66 millionUK (two tickets split)
June 1995National Lottery£22.5 millionUK (syndicate)

Lottery Syndicate: How It Works

A lottery syndicate is a group of people who pool their money to buy multiple tickets, sharing any winnings equally. A 10-person syndicate buying 10 tickets has 10 times better odds than a single person buying one ticket. However, any jackpot win is divided by 10, so a £10 million jackpot becomes £1 million each.

Syndicates are the most common way large prizes are shared in the workplace. Always use a formal written syndicate agreement to avoid disputes - the National Lottery website provides free templates. For tax purposes, lottery winnings are not subject to UK income tax, capital gains tax, or inheritance tax in the year of winning (though investment income from winnings is taxable).

What Could You Do With £1 Million?

While the jackpot dream is winning tens of millions, even a £1 million prize changes lives significantly:

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the odds of winning the National Lottery jackpot?

The odds of winning the National Lottery (Lotto) jackpot are 1 in 45,057,474. This means if you bought one ticket for every draw (Wednesday and Saturday, 104 draws per year), you would statistically need to play for approximately 433,000 years before winning the jackpot. Matching 3 numbers (winning £30) has much better odds of 1 in 96.2 - so you would expect to win £30 roughly once per 96 tickets bought.

What are the EuroMillions jackpot odds?

The EuroMillions jackpot odds are 1 in 139,838,160 - more than three times harder than the National Lottery jackpot. EuroMillions has a higher ticket price (£2.50 vs £2.00 for Lotto) but offers much larger jackpots, frequently exceeding £50 million and sometimes exceeding £200 million during rollover periods. The guaranteed jackpot cap is €250 million, after which prizes cascade down to lower tiers.

Does a lottery syndicate improve my odds?

Yes, a syndicate improves your statistical chance of winning proportionally to the number of tickets bought. A 10-person syndicate buying 10 tickets has exactly 10 times better odds than an individual buying 1 ticket (from 1 in 45 million to approximately 1 in 4.5 million for the Lotto jackpot). However, any winnings are divided equally among members. A 10-person syndicate sharing a £10 million jackpot each receives £1 million - still life-changing, but not the headline figure.

What is the expected value of a National Lottery ticket?

The expected value (EV) of a £2 National Lottery ticket is approximately £0.50-£0.60, meaning on average you get back about 25-30p for every £1 spent. The lottery retains around 72% of all ticket revenue (28% goes to good causes, 5% to Allwyn's fee, and 39% is paid back in prizes). Expected value improves slightly when jackpots are very large during rollover draws, but the lottery is always a negative expected value activity mathematically.

What is Set for Life and how does it work?

Set for Life is a UK National Lottery draw where the top prize is £10,000 per month for 30 years (total value £3.6 million). The odds of winning the top prize are 1 in 15,339,390. Unlike a lump sum, the monthly payment structure means you receive a steady income - you cannot receive the full amount upfront, though the prize does transfer to a named beneficiary if the winner dies. Tickets cost £1.50 per line and draws take place Monday and Thursday evenings.

What are the biggest UK lottery jackpots ever won?

The biggest UK EuroMillions jackpot ever won was £184 million by an anonymous UK ticket holder in July 2022. The Weir couple from Largs, Scotland won £161 million in November 2011. For National Lottery (Lotto), the biggest jackpot was £66 million split between two tickets in April 2016. The first-ever Lotto millionaire was created in the first draw on November 19th, 1994. Since then, over 6,000 people have become lottery millionaires in the UK.

Is the lottery more or less likely than being struck by lightning?

Winning the Lotto jackpot (1 in 45 million) is approximately 2,944 times less likely than being struck by lightning during your lifetime (approximately 1 in 15,300 lifetime risk in the UK). You are also more likely to be dealt a royal flush in poker on your first hand (1 in 649,740 - about 69 times more likely than the Lotto jackpot), win the Thunderball jackpot, score a hole-in-one at golf, or be born with a genetic condition than win the National Lottery jackpot.

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Mustafa Bilgic

Statistics and probability specialist. Mustafa applies mathematical analysis to help UK readers understand the true odds behind games of chance and make informed decisions. Updated February 2026.